The growth of oil futures in China: Evidence of market maturity through global crises

Chinese oil futures products were created in 2018, and have since presented an alternative, regional exchange through which to invest. This research tests for evidence of developing market maturity during the time since the market was established, specifically focusing on static and time-varying spillovers of higher moments between Chinese oil futures prices and other international crude oil markets. Chinese oil markets are also valuable when considering contagion and informational effects within the COVID-19 outbreak. Results indicate significant evidence of market maturity, to the extent that Chinese oil futures play a dominant role in the risk transmission of volatility, information asymmetry and extreme values, to both the international oil market and China’s domestic energy-related markets before the outbreak of the COVID-19. After the escalation of the COVID-19 pandemic, such maturity and informational effects deteriorate significantly. Such outcomes suggest that while Chinese oil futures markets were growing at pace to become a leading international oil product, the outbreak of COVID-19 has stalled such progress.

Have crisis-induced banking supports influenced European bank performance, resilience and price discovery?

The ownership structures of European banks are today quite different relative to those before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), particularly due to new takeovers, government guarantees, bailouts, and other defensive market responses post-GFC. These new ownership structures raise questions as to how these banks have performed, particularly during the implementation of non-standard central bank monetary policies in response to crises that have occurred since the GFC. This paper develops a time-varying series of changing government, private and public bank ownership structures, and compares the performance of several major European banking institutions during periods of crises and mitigating central bank actions. We specifically evaluate as to whether crisis-driven changes of ownership structure have influenced the corporate performance, resilience and signals of price discovery generated by these institutions? The COVID-19 pandemic is identified and used as an example of an idiosyncratic shock on which testing procedures are implemented. Significant differentials within the European banking system based on government supports are identified. The data examined show that the information share of price discovery among government-supported European banks is significantly higher in non-crisis periods than non-government supported banks. We present several companion tests consistent with this evidence and discuss a variety of implications for future research and policy.

An analysis of investor behaviour and information flows surrounding the negative WTI oil price futures event

Intertwined with the persisting effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the world economy, the price of WTI crude oil futures became negative on April 20, 2020. This anomalous incident has drawn much attention within the literature. This paper attempts to investigate the origins and specific impacts of the negative pricing event on the price discovery of WTI futures by employing a bivariate VECM-DCC-GARCH-SNP model, incorporating Legendre polynomials, where the dynamics of major information share measures at high-frequency time intervals are uncovered. Time-varying patterns of information share are identified across the period surrounding negative WTI prices. In particular, price discovery effects steadily abate after a sharp shock during the eight weeks before the negative pricing event. Peak price discovery differentials then re-occur within the negative-pricing event, before once again abating. Such results verify CFTC concerns surrounding the peculiarity of WTI futures trading conditions, that is, the conditions for the negative pricing event were well-established in the weeks before April 2020. Our results shed light on stylised evidence relating to the information efficiency of the international crude oil market more generally.

Pandemic-related financial market volatility spillovers: Evidence from the Chinese COVID-19 epicentre

Utilising Chinese-developed data based on long-standing influenza indices, and the more recently-developed coronavirus and face mask indices, we set out to test for the presence of volatility spillovers from Chinese financial markets upon a broad number of traditional financial assets during the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Such indices are used to specifically measure the performance of Chinese companies who are inherently involved in the R&D and production of materials and products used to mitigate and counteract the effects of influenza and coronavirus, therefore, such indices present a unique barometer of broad population-based sentiment relating to COVID-19 in comparison to traditional Chinese influenza. Within days of the formal announcement of the COVID-19 outbreak, results indicate exceptionally pronounced and persistent impacts of the coronavirus pandemic upon Chinese financial markets, compared to that of the traditional and long-standing influenza index. Further, in a novel finding to date, COVID-19 is found to have had a substantial effect on directional spillovers upon the Bitcoin market. Cryptocurrency-based confidence appears to have been instigated through government-developed education schemes, which are identified as one possible explanation for our results, which are found to remain robust across both data-frequency and methodological variation.